BEIJING/SINGAPORE - During the 2019 Indonesian presidential election, Mr Prabowo Subianto – who was then running against incumbent Joko Widodo – pledged to review Chinese investments in the country if he won.

Yet after he was appointed defence minister later that year, Mr Prabowo was criticised for being too soft on China. At that time, dozens of Chinese fishing vessels encroached into Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone in the Natuna Sea – territory also claimed by China.

Mr Prabowo had called for handling the situation in a “relaxed” manner, adding that “China is a friendly nation”. This drew criticism from his former political allies, even as Indonesia sent warships and fighter jets to the area. Defence ties were later strengthened when he met his Chinese counterparts on multiple visits, most recently in 2023.

Will Mr Prabowo, who has claimed victory following the Feb 14 presidential election with around 60 per cent of the vote based on unofficial quick counts, take a stronger and more nationalistic stance towards China, or strike a more conciliatory tone in favour of flourishing economic ties?

Analysts said Mr Prabowo, 72, is expected to continue with the economic and foreign policies of Mr Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi. The latter’s tacit endorsement of his former political rival played a key role in securing Mr Prabowo’s election victory.

Former Indonesian ambassador to China Sugeng Rahardjo told The Straits Times that he expects relations between Indonesia and China to continue to strengthen, based on the “strong foundation” established over the past 10 years by Mr Widodo, who has good personal relations with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

He noted that Mr Prabowo and his running mate, Mr Widodo’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, have emphasised during their campaign that they will continue policies implemented by Mr Widodo, who remains President until Oct 20.

The General Elections Commission has said official results are expected to be released by March 20 at the latest.  

Indonesia-China economic ties have soared under Mr Widodo’s 10-year tenure. China is now Indonesia’s top trading partner, with trade valued at more than US$130 billion (S$175 billion) annually in 2022 – nearly double the amount in 2014. China was also Indonesia’s second-largest investor in 2022 at US$8.2 billion, behind Singapore at US$13.3 billion.

A centrepiece of the partnership is the US$7.2 billion high-speed railway connecting capital Jakarta to nearby Bandung that began operations in October 2023. It was a signature project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative and was built by a consortium involving China Railway International.

Analysts believe that China’s economic importance to Indonesia will weigh heavily in Mr Prabowo’s calculus, and that his approach towards the world’s second-largest economy will be guided more by pragmatism than nationalism.

Dr Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, a researcher at Indonesia’s Centre of Economic and Law Studies who studies China-Indonesia relations, said: “I think Prabowo will see China as an important partner, and I think he will strive to continue establishing stronger cooperation between Indonesia and China.”

“Whoever wins the election will remain close to China no matter what, because China is a very important partner for Indonesia, especially in terms of the economy. Most of our development funding and infrastructure investment comes from China,” he added.

But even if Mr Prabowo takes a pragmatic approach towards China, he might have to contend with nationalistic pressures from the Indonesian public on potentially thorny bilateral issues.

Dr Rakhmat highlighted issues that could cause friction with Beijing if they come under domestic pressure.

Other than the Natuna Sea territorial dispute, there is also Indonesia’s support in the United Nations for China’s policies towards Uighur minorities in Xinjiang, which has drawn some domestic backlash.

In 2022, Indonesia voted against a resolution tabled by the US to debate China’s alleged human rights abuses against the Uighurs in the UN human rights body. At that time, Indonesia said it did not want to politicise the UN council.

Another potentially thorny bilateral issue is Chinese companies’ involvement in Indonesia’s nickel mining industry, which has caused environmental damage.

For better or worse, Mr Prabowo’s less-than-predictable personality will affect Indonesia’s foreign policy. At the Shangri-La Dialogue high-level security forum in June 2023, the former army general ruffled feathers at home and abroad when he suggested creating a new demilitarised zone 15km between Ukraine’s and Russia’s forward positions and letting the people in “disputed” areas decide their fate through a UN referendum.

The Indonesian Foreign Ministry was reportedly caught off guard by the proposal, which would allow Russian forces control over eastern Ukraine territory occupied since the February 2022 invasion. The plan was rejected out of hand by Ukraine, although Chinese delegates had reportedly welcomed Mr Prabowo’s proposal.

Often described as hot-tempered, Mr Prabowo lashed out at journalists during his 2014 bid for the presidency, criticising them for being “cruel” and “not balanced” in their coverage of him.

While there are signs that Mr Prabowo might be unpredictable, he is likely to continue Indonesia’s basic foreign policy stance, focusing on regional autonomy and not siding with either the United States or China, said Associate Professor Kei Koga from the Public Policy and Global Affairs programme at Nanyang Technological University.

Regarding the Natuna Sea dispute, Prof Koga believes Mr Prabowo would take a wait-and-see position in terms of Beijing’s posture, although he added that the risk of an escalation remains.

Dr Leo Suryadinata, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, believes that open conflict is unlikely as long as China does not start agitating Indonesia in the Natuna Sea. “I believe Beijing knows this.”

Chinese state media reports on Mr Prabowo’s projected victory have struck a positive tone, highlighting the economic and trade gains, as well as Belt and Road Initiative projects, under Mr Widodo’s term.

They also noted that all three presidential election candidates had posted Chinese New Year wishes on social media, travelled to Chinatown and said little to stir up anti-Chinese sentiment during the 75-day campaign period.

Dr Leo said Indonesia wants to be regarded as an independent actor rather than a follower. “Mr Prabowo would make sure that Indonesian territorial integrity would not be harmed, but would not follow either the US or China. He is not likely to get involved in US-China competition.”