JAKARTA – Indonesia is confronting challenges overhauling its ageing military despite a spending splurge to face down threats that include a long-running territorial dispute with its biggest trading partner, China.

Incursions by Chinese vessels into waters around the Natuna Islands, between Malaysia and Indonesia, have put Jakarta on alert.

The government recently relocated a major naval fleet command to Riau, near the islands, after starting construction on a submarine base in 2021. It also announced plans to spend US$125 billion (S$168 billion) on new weapons, despite a shrinking defence budget. But expensive weapons cannot solve all of Indonesia’s defence challenges.

Its reliance on several foreign suppliers over the years – including Russia – means its existing hardware is burdened by interoperability problems, said Dr Evan Laksmana, senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. 

Military efficiency is also hampered by a glut of new recruits and a rapid system of rotation that can see troops change roles after a matter of months, he said. 

“You can get all the new hardware you want, but if you don’t improve the quality of the man behind the gun then it doesn’t really matter,” Dr Laksmana said.

Tensions between China and coastal nations along the South China Sea have been rising for years as Beijing asserts its claim to a vast swathe of territory in the resource-rich waters.

While open conflict is unlikely, nations across Asia and South-east Asia are rushing to improve their defences for a range of scenarios, and the US and its allies are eager to help. 

In November, Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto said a US$14 billion deal to purchase 36 new F-15 jets from Boeing is in advanced stages after praising cooperation with the US during a visit by Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. Days later, he met French counterpart Sebastien Lecornu in Jakarta amid reports that Indonesia is in talks to buy two Scorpene-class attack submarines. 

Indonesia had already placed an order for 42 Rafale fighter jets in a US$8.1 billion deal earlier in 2022. It has also expressed interest in buying Turkish-made armed drones, Reuters reported in September, adding to the list of countries interested in unmanned weapons that have proven devastating in conflicts such as Russia’s war in Ukraine.

General Andika Perkasa, until this week the nation’s top military commander, said in November that he would also like to expand ties with the Quad – the security partnership between India, Australia, Japan and the US – as well as increase participation in the Garuda Shield military exercises led by the US. 

Said Dr Greg Poling, head of the South-east Asia programme at Washington’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies: “Indonesia’s security sector, if not all of its political leadership, has woken up to the threat of China’s grey-zone coercion.”

“Its planned naval and air procurements seem pointed at enhancing domain awareness, patrol and deterrence capabilities with regard to China.”

The pressures on Indonesia come with the historically non-aligned nation trying to navigate a middle path between its economic reliance on China – its biggest trading partner – and the US and its allies, to whom Jakarta is turning for a stronger security partnership. 

Beyond any risk to the Natuna Islands, Indonesia also finds itself in the middle of an increasingly armed and tense neighbourhood: US-China strains over Taiwan have spiked in 2022, Japan wants to sharply increase military spending and Australia is still planning to buy nuclear submarine technology from the US and Britain – a move that officials in Jakarta remain sharply critical of. 

In a clear sign of how Indonesia does not want to play favourites, the country has continued to do military exercises with both the US and China.

But there is little doubt China is a key part of the equation when it comes to Indonesia’s security posture, with retired Gen Perkasa citing the Natuna Islands when talking about the military’s shortcomings.  

“I’m not going to be embarrassed to say this, but our ability to operate patrolling in our EEZ around Natuna” can only last days, he told Nikkei Asia last month, referring to his country’s exclusive economic zone.  

Without an effective modernisation of the armed forces, with credible platforms and a real increase in capacity and capabilities, dealing with threats from China and other nations will be complicated, said Ms Anastasia Febiola S, head of defence at Semar Sentinel Indonesia, which provides political risk and security advice to companies.

Indonesia has to tread carefully, given that its economy depends on China: Total trade between the two nations neared US$114 billion in 2021, according to International Monetary Fund import data. The US was a distant second at US$37 billion. 

President Joko Widodo, better known as Jokowi, has not let the economic relationship stop him from acting.

He deployed warships to the area around the Natuna Islands on multiple occasions following the sighting of Chinese vessels. He has also declared the right to exploit natural resources in the EEZ around the islands, even with China demanding it stop, according to Reuters.

But in a sign of the balancing act Jakarta continues to maintain between Beijing and Washington, the new top military officer – Admiral Yudo Margono – recently lamented the potential for instability due to “the presence of foreign powers in the South China Sea region”. That was seen by some regional experts as a slight against the US’ defence posture in the region. 

“I don’t think there’s a consensus that China is the adversary,” said Dr Laksmana. “Some would see China as a nuisance. You will find still those who would argue that China remains the most important economic partner.” BLOOMBERG