WASHINGTON – Donald Trump began the week with a haul of US$50 million (S$67.4 million) from what he called the “biggest night” in fund-raising ever, eclipsing President Joe Biden’s recent event that brought in more than US$26 million.

The Republican nominee is also having a good run in opinion polls. 

But political scientists say there are more clues to the state of the presidential race than just fund-raising and horse race surveys. 

When it comes to funds, the Biden campaign is one up on Trump for now. It stumped up US$90 million in March, with US$26 million coming from a single fund-raising dinner in New York that featured former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton.

This gives Mr Biden US$192 million cash in hand, more than any Democratic presidential candidate had at this point in the electoral cycle. And nearly US$100 million more than Trump, who raised US$66 million in March and ended the month with a kitty of US$93 million. 

Mr Biden, 81, has taken digs at 77-year-old Trump’s trouble with funds, including his difficulty in raising money for bail and legal fees in the four criminal cases he is fighting. 

“Just the other day, a guy came up to me and said: ‘Mr President, I’m being crushed by debt, I’m completely wiped out, I need some help.’ I had to say: ‘I’m sorry, Donald, I can’t help you’,” Mr Biden said at one fund-raiser.

But a week later, Trump outdid himself with an April 6 fund-raiser at Mar-a-Lago that brought him US$50.5 million during the course of one single evening.  

“It took three Democrat presidents to raise $25 million and one president to raise over $50 million – Donald J. Trump,” quipped Trump campaign spokeswoman Danielle Alvarez. 

While fund-raising hauls are crucial in a presidential election, with candidates running up huge tabs on television campaigns and on mobilising voters, a big purse has not always guaranteed wins. 

Ask Mrs Hillary Clinton, who outraised Trump two to one and still lost in 2016.

But money does smooth the way. Mr Biden has wasted no time pressing his money advantage, opening more than 100 field offices in the most competitive states of the 2024 election. 

The ground game, a strong network of local party workers, can make the difference in a close race, said Mr Louis Perron, a political consultant and the author of a new book Beat The Incumbent.

“It gives you the freedom to do various things in a campaign, to try out new approaches and to be innovative,” said Mr Perron. 

Opinion polls are a lot harder to interpret. Though ubiquitous and conducted by professionals who devote a huge amount of resources to them, polls did not correctly predict the 2016 election that brought Trump to power or the 2022 midterm elections, among others.

But that has not dented their popularity. The latest to capture headlines was a March 17-24 poll by The Wall Street Journal. It showed Trump was ahead of Mr Biden in six battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania – by a lead of two to eight percentage points. In the seventh, Wisconsin, Mr Biden led by three points.

These critical states account for 93 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the US election. And except for North Carolina, these states had all voted for Mr Biden in 2020.

“Basically what the polls are saying is this is a close election, but in terms of predicting the outcome, it’s irrelevant whether you’re a point ahead or two points behind,” said Mr Perron.

“The most interesting part of the polls at this point in time is actually not the vote question but the ownership question – who do you trust on which issue,” he added.

The same Wall Street Journal poll – one of many – showed that Trump held double-digit leads in every state when voters were asked who can best handle the economy, inflation and immigration.

Mr Biden scored better on abortion, a topic that some voters consider a make-or-break issue. 

But voters can also be influenced by developments such as the April 15 start of Trump’s trial in a case where he is accused of paying hush money to a porn star. It is the first of four criminal trials that the former president faces, including two cases stemming from his alleged attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

Whoever owns the main issue will typically win the election, said Mr Clifford Young and Mr Chris Jackson of market research and polling firm Ipsos, in an April 9 commentary for Fortune magazine.

As pollsters, they said, they paid attention to what Americans are most worried about, what they call the “main issue”. 

The candidates who present themselves as strongest on the main problem win the election 85 per cent of the time, they noted. 

This was the case with Mr Biden in 2020, who campaigned on Trump’s mishandling of the Covid-19 crisis; Mr George W. Bush and national security in 2004; and Mr Clinton and the economy in 1992. 

They said “political extremism or threats to democracy” – a proxy for the anti-Trump vote – were beating the economy and immigration as the key issues in their polling. 

“It is an issue that Biden dominates. It was a key theme for Democrats in the 2022 midterms and will be a central one in 2024,” they said, adding that this was the blind spot in other polls.

Still, with the election about seven months away, and only a few points separating the rivals in surveys, events can move the needle significantly. For example, a rise or fall in inflation can change votes. As can a Trump conviction, or how the Ukraine and Gaza wars turn out.

Mr Perron said he watches Mr Biden’s job approval ratings much more closely for that reason.

“Job approval for Joe Biden is actually more important than the vote question because elections with an incumbent are for most a referendum on the incumbent, and the incumbent rarely gets more votes than his job approval,” said Mr Perron.

That spells bad news for Mr Biden. Americans’ approval of his job performance fell three percentage points to 38 per cent in a February Gallup poll, just one point shy of his all-time low and well below the 50 per cent threshold that has typically led to re-election for incumbents.

Mr Biden, therefore, has tried to focus attention instead on his predecessor’s record. In particular, his handling of the Covid-19 crisis that claimed a million American lives, the most of any country. 

But, said Mr Perron, harking back to the past would also prompt voters to fondly recall Trump’s first three years in office when the data on the economy, including inflation, was better.

“In any case, people always tend to think it was better before,” said Mr Perron. “Mostly, because that was the time when they were younger, prettier, healthier. That’s just human nature.”

But Mr Biden is not alone in making mistakes.

Trump’s argument is that the incumbent needs to be replaced.

“But Trump has a very hard time keeping the focus on Biden, because it’s just in his very personality to make everything about himself. And I think that works against him,” said Mr Perron.

While one candidate is seen as old and diffuse, the other is seen as self-obsessed and nursing a grouse.

In a contest between two flawed candidates, the one who does not implode will be king.