FRANKLIN, New Hampshire – Donald Trump’s last remaining Republican opponent, former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, was making a final push on Jan 22 to convince New Hampshire voters to turn out and deliver her an upset victory in the state’s presidential nominating contest.

New Hampshire’s primary vote on Jan 23 will split the state’s Republican voters into two camps: those with former president Trump, and those against him. The contest became a one-on-one race on Jan 21, when Florida Governor Ron DeSantis ended his struggling campaign and endorsed Trump.

Trump, who polls show leads Mrs Haley by double digits, is hoping to deliver a fatal blow to the former South Carolina governor’s campaign by notching another commanding win. He coasted to a record-setting victory in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation contest last week.

For Mrs Haley, New Hampshire represents perhaps her last chance to prove the Republican base could consider someone other than Trump, who commands the party’s faithful despite facing 91 felony counts. He has pleaded not guilty to every crime, claiming political persecution.

At the first of five planned campaign events in New Hampshire on Jan 22, Mrs Haley told a packed veterans’ hall in a working-class town that Trump was hung up on vendettas and preoccupied with court cases, keeping him from focusing on the future.

“When you go out on Tuesday, you’re gonna decide: Do you want more of the same, or do you want something new?” Mrs Haley, 52, asked voters in Franklin.

Trump, 77, is having just one event, a 9pm Eastern time (10am Singapore time on Jan 23) rally in the central town of Laconia, where he will be joined by former Republican presidential candidates, including Senator Tim Scott and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who have since endorsed him.

The state’s large number of independent voters, who are permitted to cast ballots in Jan 23’s election, make New Hampshire friendlier turf for Mrs Haley than more conservative Iowa.

Even so, Trump holds a double-digit lead in most statewide public polls. A poll released by Monmouth University on Jan 22, but conducted before Mr DeSantis dropped out, showed 52 per cent of voters would choose Trump, 34 per cent would choose Mrs Haley and 8 per cent would choose Mr DeSantis. DeSantis supporters were twice as likely to name Trump than Mrs Haley as their second choice, according to the poll.

‘Haley has a shot’

Jan 23’s result could hinge on voter turnout and the ratio of Republicans to independents, known in the state as “undeclareds”, said Mr Jim Merrill, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire.

“Nikki Haley has a shot here tomorrow and that shot is having enough Republican voters (stay home), then a large undeclared turnout,” Mr Merrill told a media roundtable.

Mr Merrill said, for Mrs Haley to prevail, turnout would likely need to be close to 340,000 voters. That is higher than the projection for a record-setting 322,000 voters disclosed by the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office last week.

The current record for a New Hampshire Republican presidential primary is 287,653 voters in 2016.

A Haley victory could give her the momentum and fund raising she needs ahead of the next major nominating contest on Feb 24 in South Carolina, her home state where she served two terms as governor.

The winner of 2024’s Republican nominating contests will take on President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in November’s general election.

The national Democratic Party made South Carolina its first official primary, so Mr Biden is not on the ballot on Jan 23. Still, support for Mr Biden’s write-in campaign in New Hampshire will be closely watched amid weak polls for the 81-year-old president.

On Jan 22, after a robo-call using fake audio of Mr Biden urging Democrats to stay home began circulating in New Hampshire, the White House denied the president had made any such recording and said it highlights the risks of “deep fakes” and misinformation.

Trump trial postponed

Trump had been expected to spend the morning potentially testifying in a New York courtroom in a defamation case brought against him by author E. Jean Carroll, who says he raped her decades ago. Trump accuses Ms Carroll of making up the story to boost her memoir.

But the trial was postponed to Jan 23 after a juror reported feeling ill and a parent of Trump’s lead lawyer tested positive for Covid-19. The judge in the trial said he will decide later whether to let Trump testify on Jan 24, so he can be in New Hampshire for Jan 23’s vote.

As with his criminal cases, which he has frequently used in fund-raising pleas, Trump has portrayed the Carroll case as part of a broader conspiracy by liberal forces to derail his candidacy.

In recent days, Mrs Haley has intensified her attacks on Trump, asserting he has suffered some cognitive decline since his time in the White House and criticising him for embracing authoritarian foreign leaders.

At a rally on Jan 21 in Rochester, New Hampshire, Trump accused Mrs Haley of relying on an “unholy alliance” of liberals, “never-Trumpers” who oppose him and Rinos, or Republicans in Name Only. He has used a version of her given first name, Nimarata, as an insult and amplified false posts on social media questioning her birthright US citizenship.

Mrs Haley is the daughter of Indian immigrants and was born in South Carolina. REUTERS