SINGAPORE - Political observers called Senior Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam the People’s Action Party (PAP) Government’s trump card for the presidential election, following his announcement on Thursday that he intends to run for president.
But they also questioned if Mr Tharman’s popularity could deter other hopefuls from throwing their hat into the ring, possibly resulting in a walkover.
Mr Tharman, 66, on Thursday became the first person to openly declare his intention to contest the presidential election, which has to be called before incumbent President Halimah Yacob’s term expires on Sept 13.
Political observer and former nominated MP Zulkifli Baharudin said: “Mr Tharman is the equivalent of what I would call a PAP nuclear option, meaning you can’t think of a better winning formula for the PAP.
“It’s important for any government to endorse a candidate which, while he’s supposed to be independent in his job, is still someone they can work with and win the election.”
He added that Mr Tharman appeals to a wide spectrum of Singaporeans regardless of race, socio-economic class, and even political party.
Observers recalled a 2016 poll of Singaporeans here that showed Mr Tharman as their top choice to be Singapore’s fourth prime minister.
But he ruled out the possibility then, saying: “I’m good at policymaking, I’m good at advising my younger colleagues, and at supporting the PM – not at being the PM. That’s not me.”
Too close to the establishment?
Dr Felix Tan, a political analyst and associate lecturer at Nanyang Technological University (NTU), said there will always be some Singaporeans who will feel that, as a soon-to-be former PAP member running for the presidency, Mr Tharman cuts too much of an establishment figure.
“But I think we need to look at and examine Mr Tharman’s credibility on its own. He has a great international reputation, given his role in so many international organisations,” he said.
“Second, he has strong domestic support. If you look at the general election, his GRC always has among the highest (margin of) votes.”
While Dr Leong Chan-Hoong, head of policy development, evaluation and data analytics at research consultancy Kantar Public, told The Straits Times in May that it is important for the ideal candidate to not be viewed as overly pro-establishment, other observers noted that Mr Tharman may be an exception.
Associate Professor Bilveer Singh from the National University of Singapore political science department said: “He may be associated with the PAP, but everyone knows that Singapore and Singaporeans are more important to him.”
Former MP Inderjit Singh, who worked with Mr Tharman for more than 15 years, said Mr Tharman was willing to challenge the conventional thinking of the Government.
“He is one minister who displayed very independent thinking and was always willing to make bold changes in the ministries he headed,” he said.
Mr Singh cited Mr Tharman’s emphasis on inclusive economic growth, as well as how he dismantled the streaming system in primary school as examples.
Ms Nydia Ngiow, managing director of policy advisory firm BowerGroupAsia’s Singapore office, said: “It is worth noting that many Singaporeans view Mr Tharman as a personality larger than the party he came from.”
This also means that while the presidential elections have historically served as a bellwether for the PAP’s performance in an upcoming election, a stellar performance by Mr Tharman in the presidential election might not meaningfully translate into similar sentiments for the PAP, she added.
A possible downside of having a strong candidate like Mr Tharman declare his interest is that it could deter others from running, Mr Zulkifli said.
“It takes a brave man to want to fight Mr Tharman… I’m quite sure that many people who probably had the intention of running would now think twice,” he added.
Yet, NTU’s Dr Tan remains hopeful that others will step up to the challenge.
“It’s really important that there are others who are willing and have the tenacity to run in the presidential election, regardless of who will be running as well,” he said.
“It’s very important to have some sort of competition where Singaporeans come out and vote for who they want... It’s about giving Singaporeans the opportunity to choose their president,” he added.
Will there be a by-election?
One key question is who will fill Mr Tharman’s role in his constituency after July 7 when he steps down, and whether a by-election has to be called.
He is the anchor minister of Jurong GRC, which is also represented by Senior Parliamentary Secretary for Health and Law Rahayu Mahzam, Dr Tan Wu Meng, Mr Xie Yao Quan and Mr Shawn Huang.
Mr Tharman said at a press conference on Thursday that Mr Huang will cover the Meet-the-People sessions for his ward, Taman Jurong, while the other MPs in Jurong GRC will take turns to cover other events and meetings with residents.
There is no requirement under the law to call a by-election if an MP resigns, even if that member is a minority.
Aljunied GRC MP Pritam Singh had asked in Parliament in February 2017 whether a by-election would be called in a GRC in the event that a minority member of that GRC stepped down to contest a presidential election.
Mr Chan Chun Sing, then Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office, replied that there would be no need to call a by-election if this were to happen.
Also, no by-election is needed in a GRC unless all the other MPs also vacate their seats.
Singapore Management University Associate Professor of Law Eugene Tan said Mr Tharman’s departure nevertheless leaves a hole in Jurong GRC.
“The PAP will have to assure Jurong GRC voters that their interests will still be well taken care of,” he said.
He noted that National Development Minister Desmond Lee, who is currently in West Coast GRC, was formerly from Jurong GRC and could be asked to take up the role.
Ms Ngiow said: “The party will likely use the time until the next general election to assess the best possible candidate who might command a similar level of respect and confidence from the public, to replace Mr Tharman from within their ranks.”
