The biggest question confronting currency traders at the start of 2024 is whether the US dollar – the world’s most important currency – is headed for a bear market, a sustained move downwards.

The consequences would be huge. A weaker US dollar would be a shot in the arm for emerging economies – especially those with high US dollar-denominated debts. It would imply a rise in the value of long-suffering currencies – especially the Japanese yen, which has not benefited from interest rate hikes, unlike the euro or the pound sterling.