It has been nearly a year since Russia’s tanks rolled across the Ukrainian border, accompanied by air attacks. Moscow called it “a special military operation”, but for the rest of the world, the Ukraine war had begun. This has turned out to be a long war.

The situation has reached a dynamic stalemate, with neither side prepared to negotiate. The next few months will see fierce escalations in military action on both sides. Russia is doubling down. Ukrainian intelligence suggests President Vladimir Putin is mobilising another 500,000 men to send to Ukraine for the big push starting in spring.