NEW YORK CITY – Israel’s military is preparing an offensive on the southern Gazan city of Rafah, the latest step in the campaign aimed at eradicating Hamas, the Iran-backed militant group behind the Oct 7 attack, in which 1,200 people were killed and 250 more were abducted.

The prospect of another major assault has drawn criticism from the United States and other countries, as concerns rise over the fate of one million Palestinian refugees who have sought refuge in the enclave’s one remaining safe haven. 

Israel conducted some air strikes and rescued two hostages in a special-forces mission. The humanitarian impact of sending ground forces into the city could be catastrophic.

Meanwhile, talks mediated by the likes of the US, Egypt and Qatar continue in an effort to secure a ceasefire with Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organisation by the US and European Union.

What is Rafah?

Rafah is the southernmost city on the Gaza Strip, lying near the 12km-long border with Egypt, and is the location of the main crossing point to the North African nation. Egypt closed the border for people trying to flee combat zones at the start of the war, though reopened it for humanitarian aid during a pause in fighting in November 2023.

While the crossing was set up mainly for pedestrians, it is now used for the transportation of critical aid into Gaza, though ongoing hostilities hamper its distribution. 

There is another crossing in the area called Kerem Shalom, though that is controlled by Israel and has been largely closed for humanitarian aid throughout the conflict.

Why is Rafah important?

When Israel began its invasion of Gaza in October 2023, the military organised so-called safe corridors for people to move away from the initial bombardment and ground battles in the north. But the army then pushed south towards the city of Khan Younis, and has now effectively cornered upwards of a million people in the Rafah region.

Peace with Egypt is important for Israel. Relations have been calm since the two nations signed a US-mediated peace treaty in 1979, leading to Israel’s withdrawal from the Sinai Peninsula. In return, Egypt has maintained a demilitarised zone along their border. 

Yet tensions between the two have been running high since the start of the Hamas war, especially after an Israeli think-tank suggested Egypt open the Sinai Desert for displaced Palestinians. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and other officials have ruled out any notion of Gazans being relocated to Egypt, saying such a move may pose a security threat and undermine Palestinian hopes for their own state. 

What is it like in Rafah now?

Rafah was home to some 280,000 residents before the war and now hosts more than half of Gaza’s population of about 2.2 million people, according to the United Nations.

Images show a city dotted with tents and makeshift homes in densely populated clusters, with people facing a shortage of food and medicine and nowhere else to go. 

Describing it as a “pressure cooker of despair”, the UN has already sounded the alarm over living conditions there. It has said the “scarcity of food, clean water, health services and sanitation facilities have led to preventable diseases and deaths”.

What is the Israeli perspective?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said it would be “impossible” to achieve the goal of destroying Hamas if Israel were to leave what he says are four of the group’s battalions in Rafah.

The PM is treading a fine line as he tries to appease his far-right coalition at home and cooperate with key ally the United States, which is working with Egypt and others to secure a ceasefire proposal and free hostages. 

US President Joe Biden has warned Israel not to proceed with a broader incursion into Rafah without a plan to shield civilians, and described its response to the Oct 7 attacks as “over the top”.

Israel is under mounting pressure about the high death toll in Gaza, where at least 28,000 Palestinians have been killed since the war began, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. The Rafah operation that rescued two hostages has reportedly left dozens more Palestinians dead. 

And in Egypt?

Egypt is one of a minority of Arab countries to have a peace treaty with Israel and has played a role in mediating between the country and Hamas in a bid to end the war. The heads of the Central Intelligence Agency and Israel’s Mossad spy agency held talks with senior Egyptian and Qatari officials in Cairo. 

Egypt and Qatar have been the only Arab countries to show they have leverage to directly negotiate with Hamas. 

During a discussion at a Dubai summit on Feb 13, Arab League chief Ahmed Aboul Gheit, an Egyptian, said Israel’s policies threaten longstanding relations with his country and with Jordan.

Egyptian parliamentarian Mostafa Bakry, widely seen as close to Mr Sisi, said Cairo has threatened to take the extraordinary step of suspending its 45-year-old peace deal with Israel if it sends troops into Rafah.

A ground invasion of Rafah could also be problematic for Egypt’s security, given the likelihood of Hamas militants fleeing across the border. BLOOMBERG