JAKARTA – On Nov 21, 2023, a week before starting his campaign to be Indonesia’s next president, Mr Prabowo Subianto was in Singapore to receive the nation’s highest military award.
In a statement about Mr Prabowo’s Darjah Utama Bakti Cemerlang (Tentera), or Distinguished Service Order (Military) award, Singapore’s Ministry of Defence had highlighted how it was under him that the Defence Cooperation Agreement, an important document that strengthens the security relationship between the two countries, was ratified.
The 2022 agreement that Mr Prabowo, 72, helped shape “represented a significant milestone in bilateral defence relations”, said Mindef. It added that he had made significant contributions to strengthen the close and longstanding bilateral defence relations between Indonesia and Singapore, and promoted closer collaboration.
Such an example shows how familiar Mr Prabowo is to Singapore, and how this bodes well for the relationship between the two countries, analysts told The Straits Times.
He is on course to win the election by a wide margin, election commission results showed on Feb 18, with about 66.6 per cent of votes counted.
The final result is not expected until March, but early indications point to the former general succeeding popular outgoing leader Joko Widodo.
Mr Prabowo, who has been the country’s defence minister since 2019, leads with 57.9 per cent of votes, more than twice those of his nearest rival.
In an Instagram post less than 24 hours after he declared himself Indonesia’s next president, he said he had been receiving calls congratulating him – one of them from Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong.
Mr Prabowo is hardly a stranger to Singapore, given how he frequently visits the country and interacts with its leaders.
The most recent award was conferred on him by President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, and during his time in Singapore then, Mr Prabowo had lunch with his counterpart, Dr Ng Eng Hen.
Mr Prabowo also participated in the two most recent editions of the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, a high-level defence pow-wow held in Singapore.
“He has long experience dealing with Singapore leaders and its people, and he would likely continue the defence cooperation,” said Dr Irman G. Lanti from the Padjadjaran University in Indonesia.
The healthy state of Singapore-Indonesia military cooperation, which is based on the principles of equality, mutual benefit and respect for sovereignty, means both sides can look forward to developing their bilateral relationship with confidence, said Associate Professor Leonard Sebastian from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“As president, Mr Prabowo will continue to promote closer collaboration between both defence establishments,” said Dr Leonard.
“We can expect an engaged, outward-looking Indonesia focused on playing its part in shaping regional order and an administration emphasising policy continuity with a focus on unlocking Indonesia’s economic potential.”
The areas of collaboration between Singapore and Indonesia under a Prabowo presidency will not just be limited to defence but will extend to other areas, said Dr Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international affairs analyst at policy and business consultancy Solaris Strategies Singapore.
He said that Mr Prabowo’s administration is expected to emphasise policy continuity on trade and investment, which will serve Singapore well, given how it is a leading investor and trading partner of Indonesia.
In 2022, Indonesia was a top source of visitors to Singapore, with about 1.1 million people – accounting for 17.4 per cent of total arrivals.
Singapore has been Indonesia’s top foreign investor since 2014, with total investments reaching $17.5 billion in 2022.
In 2022, Singapore was Indonesia’s fourth-largest trading partner, and Indonesia was Singapore’s sixth-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $74.6 billion.
The “healthy mandate” that Mr Prabowo has received also speaks well for the future of the two nations, added Dr Mustafa, who is also a visiting professor in international relations at the Islamic University of Indonesia.
“We can expect political stability, which is important for Singapore as it is a leading investor and trading partner of Indonesia,” he said.
Analysts expect Mr Prabowo to continue making foreign policy an area of focus for Indonesia as it continues to assert influence on global issues and establish itself as a middle-power.
“One thousand friends are too few, one enemy is too many” is a phrase Mr Prabowo has often uttered during discussions on geopolitics and international relations, and it is widely believed that the future leader of Indonesia will walk the talk.
Singapore Management University law don Eugene Tan pointed out that in his election manifesto, Mr Prabowo had talked of a “good neighbour” policy – that he wants to work with others to achieve win-win outcomes.
This, he said, is a good signal not just for Singapore, but also for Australia, which is right next to Indonesia, as well as Asean.
Moreover, both Indonesia and Singapore are set to undergo leadership transitions, which will place a premium on past working experiences between leaders, said Associate Professor Tan.
PM Lee has said that he will hand over leadership to Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong before the next general election, which has to be called by November 2025, adding that if all goes well, he will hand over the reins by the People’s Action Party’s 70th birthday on Nov 21, 2024.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s next president will take office in October 2024.
“Indonesia is a key part of our foreign policy. Having known personalities for which there have been prior robust working relationships is a bonus. It enables crucial continuity during the political transitions in both countries,” said Prof Tan.
