KUALA LUMPUR – The Indian community is set to tilt the scales at the Kuala Kubu Bharu (KKB) state assembly by-election on May 11, which pits Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) against its rival Perikatan Nasional (PN).

Campaigners from both sides have in recent weeks descended on the semi-urban constituency in Selangor and conducted cosy sessions, ranging from house-to-house visits to small neighbourhood gatherings, with the Indian community that forms 18 per cent of the voting base of just over 40,000.

KKB is one of only a handful of wards nationally with a significant Indian minority. Its majority Malay community makes up just under half of all the voters at 49.6 per cent, while the Chinese and other races comprise 30.6 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively.

By and large, PH supporters are the ethnic Chinese, Indians and progressive urban Malays. However, their support has been waning, especially among the Indians, due to the perception that they have been taken for granted by the ruling government, and that their needs are not being met.

PH supporters are also disappointed about Datuk Seri Anwar’s slow pace in delivering institutional reforms, the rising cost of living, and Malaysia’s weakening economy due to the ringgit’s steady depreciation against the US dollar.

With PN commanding the majority of the Malay votes, and PH traditionally supported by the Chinese, the Indians who account for 18 per cent of the electorate could well swing the pendulum to favour one side or the other in KKB.

Professor Kartini Aboo Talib told The Straits Times that PN is targeting the estimated 7,200 Indian voters in KKB, knowing that they have already lost the Chinese votes to PH.

“The campaign from PN is directed towards targeting the Indians to support them. They can’t get the Chinese vote, and they are working hard to sway Indians to vote PN for a simple majority.

“It seems like the Indian community is the kingmaker in the KKB by-election,” said the deputy director at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Institute of Ethnic Studies.

Still, with the Malays making up almost half of the voting base in KKB, PN is also worried that low voter turnout among its Malay supporters – amid expectations of poor voter turnout in general due to polls fatigue – would affect its chances of winning.

Currently, the ruling unity coalition under PH holds 34 out of the 56 state seats, with KKB being vacant. The by-election was triggered after the three-term incumbent, Ms Lee Kee Hiong, died on March 24.

The four-cornered contest will largely pit PH candidate Pang Sock Tao against PN’s Khairul Azhari Saut. The remaining contenders are independent candidate Nyau Ke Xin and Parti Rakyat Malaysia’s Hafizah Zainudin.

Despite efforts to woo the Indian community in KKB, some of its members told ST that they remained non-partisan.

Factory worker Raj Karrupiah, 35, is unhappy with the current economic situation. The father of three and sole breadwinner of the family said he is feeling the pinch from higher everyday prices, as are his neighbours. So any candidate who can help solve their bread-and-butter issues will get their votes.

“We need someone who can help the needy. I have a neighbour who is a single mother who needs financial assistance. There are days we have to help her with groceries even though I don’t earn much and I need help too,” said Mr Raj.

Other voters ST spoke to also prioritised local and economic issues over political parties.

Mr Mohd Fannin Norain, a 21-year-old barista at Zus Coffee in KKB town, was non-committal about his support, saying: “Race doesn’t matter for me; I only want someone who can do (the) work.”

Similarly, 77-year-old Tan Sew Sewan, considered a fixture in the town, said he wants a candidate who will help boost the local economy.

The owner of the 101-year-old Sun Sun Nam Cheong restaurant, which was established by his late father, said he is still in two minds over who he will vote for on polling day.

He noted that Ms Lee, the previous state assemblywoman, had worked hard to develop her constituency.

The two heavyweight contenders for the KKB polls, Ms Pang and Mr Khairul, have promised to focus on local economic development in their respective manifestos.

PH’s Ms Pang aims to boost industrial development in the district, empower local tourism and entrepreneurship, and advocate high-tech investments to create jobs for its residents. PN’s Mr Khairul wants to promote the town as an eco-friendly tourism destination and build quality infrastructure to bolster economic activities.

Win or lose, the KKB by-election outcome will have little bearing on the stability of the state or federal administration. But it will serve as a bellwether for the popularity of Mr Anwar’s unity government, which has already taken a hit, as shown by a recent survey conducted by global market research firm Ipsos.

The study, which polled 500 Malaysians via an online portal system, found that 47 per cent of Malaysians believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction in March 2024, compared with 26 per cent in January 2023, right after Mr Anwar took office.

A defeat in KKB would signal that even non-Malays, who have been a PH bulwark for over a decade, are starting to have doubts about Mr Anwar’s so-called unity government.

Still, loyal PH supporters in this sleepy town could well win the day for the government.

Mr Arvheen Devadas, 26, who works in his father’s grocery store, told ST that Ms Pang has his full backing, especially because PH helms both the federal and state government.

“Many of my friends from the Indian community here support MIC, and by extension, PH’s unity government. Why change it? We also remember how the late Lee Kee Hiong worked hard for the people,” said Mr Arvheen, referring to the Malaysian Indian Congress.

Meanwhile, not all the Malay votes will necessarily go to PN.

Mr Raja Ibrahim Raja Daud, 54, and his wife, Ms Siti Rohani Sabar, 44, said they are fully behind Ms Pang, despite living in the Malay-majority area and PN stronghold of Batang Kali.

“When PH was in the opposition, they did their work. They helped a lot of us. Ms Lee never saw race or religion. So, Ms Pang has our votes,” said Mr Raja Ibrahim.

There is also the fear that political lethargy has set in among the electorate. This will be the third election for the people of KKB in three years – the first being the 2022 General Election when they chose their parliamentary representative, and the second was in 2023 during the Selangor state election, with PH obtaining a 4,119 majority in KKB.

The 2023 polls saw a 69 per cent voter turnout. This time around, Prof Kartini predicts a 60 per cent to 65 per cent turnout.

Dr Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute-Malaysia, noted that campaigning from both main parties has been lacklustre and the voters are not as engaged with their potential representatives.

“Turnout drops disadvantage PH, but the question will be by how much. PN and PH are both facing challenges bringing out the vote. There is dissatisfaction and lack of enthusiasm towards all sides,” said Dr Welsh.

Diehard PN supporters like Ms Rukiah Daud, 70, who owns a roadside cendol stall, could make the difference in this close race. She told ST she will only back a Muslim candidate and complained that she did not receive any financial aid from Ms Lee’s service centre.

The Batang Kali native, who is a mother of eight and has 32 grandchildren, said she has told them to come home and vote for PN on May 11.

“A few of my children and many of my grandchildren can vote in this election. Most are working and living in Kuala Lumpur. I’ve asked them to come home to vote for PN,” she said.