SEOUL – In a high-stakes race, South Korea and North Korea (DPRK) are vying for success in launching their first home-grown military spy satellites, backed respectively by the United States and Russia, as a pivotal initiative aimed at enhancing their military capabilities.

The South Korean military is set to launch its domestically developed reconnaissance satellite on Nov 30 from the Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, South Korea’s new Defence Minister Shin Won-sik told reporters on Friday.

California-headquartered US aerospace giant SpaceX’s Falcon 9 will carry South Korea’s first spy satellite.

The upcoming launch is part of South Korea’s 425 Project, which aims to “secure the military’s own reconnaissance satellites through research and development to monitor North Korea’s key strategic targets and respond” to potential threats, the Defence Ministry explained in a separate statement issued on Friday.

In pursuit of this goal, the ministry has laid out plans to launch a total of five high-resolution military satellites by 2025 in the light of the growing importance of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance – or ISR – assets for early detection of advancing North Korean nuclear and missile threats.

The ministry emphasised that military spy satellites will be the core of ISR assets, which serve as the cornerstone for South Korea’s three-axis defence system.

Spy satellites are poised to significantly reinforce the first axis of the three-pronged defence system, dubbed the “kill chain” pre-emptive strike mechanism, by bolstering ISR capabilities across deep areas and strategic targets in North Korea.

If South Korea successfully puts a spy satellite into orbit, the Defence Ministry said it would provide an opportunity to “showcase the military’s superior scientific and technological capabilities when compared with North Korea’s satellite launch failures in May and August”.

North Korea also seeks to have “a large number of reconnaissance satellites” for military purposes by 2025, as ordered by leader Kim Jong Un in March 2022. At that time, the North’s media said the goal was to “thoroughly monitor and identify anti-DPRK and hostile military actions by the aggression troops of the US imperialism and its vassal forces on the Korean peninsula and the surrounding area”.

Mr Shin pointed out that North Korea might conduct a third attempt at launching what it asserts to be a “military reconnaissance satellite” in late November. This follows a failed second launch in August, after which the North swiftly declared its intention to proceed with another satellite launch in October, attributing the previous failure to a third-stage rocket explosion.

“Judging from the signs we’ve identified, it doesn’t appear feasible within the next one or two weeks,” Mr Shin told reporters, declining to elaborate on indications.

“However, our assessment suggests that a launch could potentially occur towards the end of November, though we need to remain cautious and monitor the situation as it unfolds.”

Mr Shin explained that the “delay in North Korea’s launch may be attributed to the necessity for additional time to improve the third-stage engine” of a carrier rocket. The defence chief added that the South Korean military puts more weight on the likelihood that the third satellite launch delay is due to “specific technological guidance from Russia”.

In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly stated that he and the North Korean leader intentionally met at Russia’s primary spaceport, the Vostochny Cosmodrome, to assist North Korea in satellite development.

“The competition between South and North Korea in launching reconnaissance satellites is essentially a technology race between the United States and Russia,” said Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

“South Korea’s goal is to bolster its capabilities for the kill chain, with support from the United States. Conversely, North Korea, with Russian technological aid, is primarily oriented towards collecting intelligence on the military activities of South Korea and the United States,” he said.

But any launch conducted by the North that involves ballistic missile technology, including the use of space launch vehicles to place satellites into orbit, constitutes a breach of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions.

Amid the postponement of the pre-announced satellite launch, North Korean state media on Sunday reported that the country has designated Nov 18 as “Missile Industry Day” to commemorate the first test launch of the intercontinental ballistic missile Hwasong-17 on Nov 18, 2022.

The anniversary was designated at a meeting of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, the state media said, without elaborating on the date of the meeting.

Prof Yang suggested that North Korea might choose to conduct the third satellite launch on Missile Industry Day.

But the timing of South Korea’s upcoming satellite launch will be a crucial factor in determining North Korea’s launch date.

“The outcome will be of utmost importance if both South and North Korea proceed with their satellite launches in November. Should South Korea achieve success while North Korea faces another setback, it would cause political damage (to Pyongyang),” Prof Yang said.

“North Korea will evaluate whether it’s more advantageous to launch its satellite before or after Nov 30, which is the date set for our satellite launch.” THE KOREA HERALD/ASIA NEWS NETWORK