SINGAPORE - Domestic politics in the United States and China is the most decisive factor shaping their bilateral relationship, which could worsen, said an eminent Chinese scholar on Thursday.

Professor Wang Jisi, from Peking University in Beijing, said that if the trajectories of their domestic politics continue in the current direction, the downward spiral may not be reversible.

“The best scenario is no catastrophe, not improvement,” he said during a public lecture on US-China relations organised by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore at the Parkroyal Collection Marina Bay hotel.

The most sensitive and important bilateral issue, Taiwan, has been militarised, and has eclipsed trade friction and other issues since the Trump administration took over in 2016, noted the Chinese scholar.

People in China who favour an armed reunification with Taiwan believe that no peaceful solution is in sight, because the top leader is ultimately determined to achieve reunification within his tenure, Prof Wang said, referring to President Xi Jinping, who recently secured a rare third five-year term.

But Prof Wang, who is also Ngee Ann Kongsi Professor of International Relations at RSIS, believes that Beijing has no plans to take over the island militarily.

“The current policy is still peaceful reunification and ‘one country, two systems’. I don’t think the Chinese government has changed its approach to a military unification,” he said.

The bilateral relationship between the US and China has worsened in recent years. Both countries are embroiled in ongoing tussles over issues such as trade, technology and Taiwan. A November 2022 meeting between US President Joe Biden and Mr Xi was meant to stabilise relations, but suspicions were further raised when the US shot down an alleged Chinese spy balloon in American airspace in February.

On Chinese perceptions of US interference in China’s domestic affairs, Prof Wang gave examples of how US human rights groups charged China with persecuting Uighurs in 2019. Washington also deprecated the Hong Kong government for its handling of the protests against the extradition Bill there that year, and blamed China for the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Prof Wang, who is also founding president of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, said that in the eyes of the Chinese, the adjustments of their domestic policies are in part a response to US pressures and interventions in China’s domestic affairs.

Beijing has tightened its control of information flow, the Internet and social media, as well as strengthened the Communist Party of China’s political education and ideological campaigns against Western political ideas. Private-owned enterprises are now under stricter supervision.

“These actions smashed American hopes that market forces and a younger generation may change China gradually and modify its external behaviour,” Prof Wang said.

The political landscape in the US also affects its perceptions and attitudes towards China.

Issues in the US ranging from political polarisation to cyber security and immigration policy are being traced to China, Prof Wang said. “It has been political correctness to speak of China in negative terms. Denunciation of China is now a bipartisan consensus.”

RSIS executive deputy chairman Ong Keng Yong, who was in the audience, said during a question-and-answer session that China’s perception of how different groups in the US, such as the executive branch, Congress and the media, are acting in concert against Chinese interests, might not necessarily be true.

In response, Prof Wang called for more understanding between both sides.

“As a scholar, I think we should learn from each other, US and China, and know more about each other’s values, why China is proud of itself, why Chinese civilisation is proud, and we should also understand why many Americans respect their Constitution and their rule of law.”

His own experience tells him such mutual learning is not easy. When he went to the US, he said, he found it difficult to reach congressmen, as they do not like to talk to someone from a communist country.

“I have to explain that yes, I am a Communist Party member, but I am not doing bad things. So you may say, well, the Chinese should understand the US more, but they (the Americans) should also understand China more. Yes, as a Communist Party member we have to abide by party discipline and so on, but we have individual thinking.

“I’m sometimes very frustrated when I talk to Americans, sometimes I’m frustrated when I talk to my Chinese friends – telling them that the US is not what you think. So there is a long way to go.”