HONG KONG - Hong Kong’s political watchers, who have traditionally followed Taiwanese politics closely, given the parallels in the two economies’ relationship with mainland China, are showing a lower level of interest in the island’s presidential election this time around.

Recent developments – including Hong Kong’s growing economic integration with the mainland, as well as Taiwan’s tough rules imposed on Hong Kongers who sought refuge there after political turmoil roiled the Chinese-ruled city – have translated into the lack of interest in the island’s Jan 13 polls, observers say.

A veteran democrat and former legislator, who asked not to be named due to the sensitive nature of the matter, told The Straits Times that in the past, Hong Kong politicians flocked to Taiwan to follow the elections to learn more about how to hold their own polls.

But now, given the lower likelihood of “truly democratic” elections in Hong Kong, “what’s the point?”, the democrat added.

“Hong Kong people have gone from being eager about the outcome of Taiwan’s elections to being more pragmatic and rational,” Ms Shirley Cheung, founder of Formosa Immigration Consultants, told ST.

Ms Cheung’s consultancy, with offices in both Hong Kong and Taiwan, provides services for people seeking to migrate between the two places.

“In recent years, they have enjoyed going north to Shenzhen on weekends for shopping and spending. They have experienced the progress of mainland China in its infrastructure, economy and soft power.

“With mainland China and Hong Kong moving closer together, Hong Kong and Taiwan, under the current Taiwanese government, have thus grown apart,” she added.

Taiwan voters are set to vote for their next president in a critical election that could have implications for regional stability. Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will step down in May after a two-term limit.

In the race to replace Ms Tsai are current vice-president Lai Ching-te of the DPP, Mr Hou Yu-ih of the main opposition pro-Beijing party Kuomintang (KMT), and Dr Ko Wen-je of the centrist Taiwan People’s Party.

Parallels have been drawn in the past between Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Some had proposed that the “one country, two systems” principle, which is used by Beijing to oversee Hong Kong, could potentially be applied to self-ruled Taiwan as well.

Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.

However, Hong Kong officials have promoted deeper economic integration with mainland China, ramping up cooperation and development to enable greater movement of people, goods and services between cities in the Greater Bay Area of Hong Kong, Macau and Guangdong.

Taiwan under Ms Tsai’s administration, meanwhile, has signalled that it is in favour of staying separate from the mainland.

A KMT win could bring Beijing’s aim closer to reality, while a DPP victory portends four more years of hostilities between Taipei and mainland China.

Politicians from both camps in Hong Kong have hence typically displayed keen interest in how Taiwan’s presidential elections play out for indications of whether Taipei would move closer or further away from their parties’ core interests and values.

But Ms Cheung and other observers said that the Taiwanese government’s treatment of Hong Kongers in recent years had left some “confused, discouraged and angry”.

Taiwan experienced a wave of Hong Kongers seeking residency on the island – seen as a safe harbour for the city’s pro-democracy supporters – after Beijing imposed a national security law on Hong Kong in 2020, following the massive anti-government protests in 2019. In 2021, some 11,000 Hong Kongers moved to Taiwan, double that in 2018.

But as Beijing and Taipei’s ties deteriorated with the island growing increasingly concerned about mainland Chinese infiltration, Ms Tsai’s administration is believed to have imposed more barriers for Hong Kong people hoping to migrate to Taiwan.

Officially, migrants from Hong Kong and Macau can be granted naturalisation status directly after just one year of residency.

But those from Hong Kong have reportedly complained of having waited for years on end for their Taiwanese permanent residency, to no avail, when in the past it could take as little as a year.

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council has denied that there are hidden quotas for Hong Kongers.

“After 2019, some Hong Kong people immigrated to Taiwan, believing that the current Taiwanese government would support them and help them to become a member of Taiwan. But after their arrival, they discovered that it was not true,” Ms Cheung said.

“I think the attitude of the current Taiwanese government towards Hong Kong people in recent years has disappointed many of them. These are the reasons why Hong Kong people are losing interest in Taiwan,” she said.

“They’ve learnt to look at things more objectively, to look beyond election slogans to see what Taiwan politicians actually do.”

Some Hong Kong democrats echoed Ms Cheung’s views.

“We understand that the Taiwanese government is afraid of spies,” said the veteran democrat and former legislator. “But it left some Hong Kong people feeling bitter over how they were treated (over the residency issue).”

Political analyst Derek Yuen said that in the previous presidential polls, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council would typically extend invitations to some Hong Kong politicians to travel to the island to observe the proceedings, “but now accepting such invitations would violate the national security law”.

Democrat politicians seen as supporting the independence-leaning DPP, for example, may risk being accused of secession. Pro-Beijing politicians had also been advised to avoid travelling to Taiwan during this period, he claimed.

Another democrat politician, who also sought anonymity given the sensitivity of the matter, said “the national security law has had a chilling effect on Hong Kong politicians in the democratic camp”.

“The DPP has been labelled as a pro-Taiwanese independence party, and any link to it might lead to some unwanted allegations from the police (in Hong Kong), so it is quite sensitive at the moment,” the politician said.

“We tend to stay safe and avoid risk.”